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UK borrowing rises in April, making pre-election tax cuts harder for Sunak

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British public sector borrowing exceeded expectations in April, underscoring the challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and finance minister Jeremy Hunt who say they want to cut taxes further as they prepare for a tough election.
Net borrowing excluding state-controlled banks was 20.5 billion pounds ($26.05 billion) last month, 1.5 billion pounds more than in April 2023, official data showed on Wednesday.
It was higher than the median estimate of 19.3 billion pounds in a Reuters poll of economists which was also the expectation of the government’s budget forecasters.
The deficit for the financial year ending in March was higher than thought, the Office for National Statistics said.
The figures underscored the limited room for more sweeteners by the government ahead of the national election later this year, which opinion polls suggest the ruling Conservative Party will lose heavily.
“April’s public finances figures got the new 2024/25 fiscal year off to a shaky start and cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big tax cuts,” Alex Kerr, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said.
Conservative lawmakers have said they are hoping for further tax cuts before the election and Sunak has sought to create a clear dividing line on tax with the opposition Labour Party by saying he wants to axe all social security contributions paid by workers in the long term.
The International Monetary Fund warned Britain’s government on Tuesday it was on course to miss its debt target and said tax rises, rather than cuts, were likely to be needed to repair the public finances after the COVID pandemic and the surge in energy prices.
Separate data published on Wednesday delivered another blow to the government as core inflation pressures remained strong in April, dashing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in June.

PRESSURE ON THE BUDGET

Hunt’s latest budget published in March met the government’s fiscal targets for cutting public debt as a share of economic output in the fifth year of official forecast by a only slim margin of 8.9 billion pounds.
Announcements since then – including a commitment to ramp up defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, and a multi-billion pound compensation programme for some victims of a contaminated blood scandal – have already eroded that margin.
Public sector revenues in April grew by 1.6 billion pounds from a year earlier but were outstripped by a 3.1 billion-pound rise in spending, reflecting higher inflation-linked welfare benefits and the impact of inflation on government purchasing.
The statistics office said public sector net debt excluding public sector banks at the end of April 2024 stood at 97.9% of gross domestic product, up 2.5 percentage points from a year earlier and at levels last seen in the early 1960s.
It slightly raised its estimate for the budget deficit in the recently ended 2023/24 financial year to 121.4 billion pounds from its initial estimate of 120.7 billion pounds published last month – equivalent to 4.5% of economic output, against 4.4% previously.
The full-year outcome was 7.3 billion pounds higher than expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility, whose forecasts underpin the government’s tax and spending plans.
The OBR expects the deficit for the 2024/25 year to narrow to 87.2 billion pounds, or 3.1% of GDP.

Belgium refuses VTB’s request to unblock client assets, says Russian bank

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Belgium’s finance ministry has refused Russian state-owned bank VTB’s (VTBR.MM), opens new tab request for licences to unblock customer assets held through its brokerage accounts, the bank said on Wednesday.
Russia’s second-largest bank, VTB came under sweeping western sanctions as Moscow despatched troops to Ukraine in February 2022, removing it from the SWIFT global payments system and blocking its access to assets in Europe.
VTB has said that the assets of around 500,000 former customers were blocked.
VTB said the Belgian treasury had refused its application for a licence to unblock clients’ assets, but would continue working to try and defend its customers’ interests. It also requested a licence from the Luxembourg finance ministry.
Belgium and Luxembourg’s finance ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
A large proportion of Russian assets frozen in the West is held in Euroclear, the Belgium-based financial services company that specialises in settlement and custody of financial assets.

City of London calls for financial regulators to find a growth ‘mindset

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Britain’s regulators lack the mindset to boost growth and the financial sector’s global competitiveness, and need parliamentary backing to accept more risk when applying rules, the City of London said on Wednesday.
Chris Hayward, policy leader at the City, which administers the capital’s financial district, said that a new public-private body is needed to attract foreign investment.
The sector is worried about its competitiveness after being largely cut off from the European Union since Brexit, and as UK companies choose to list in New York.
In response to this, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority have been given a secondary objective of aiding growth and the financial sector’s international competitiveness when writing rules, but there is scepticism it will make a difference.
“I don’t think the FCA in particular, the regulators generally, culturally have found it within their psyche to really promote risk taking, taking opportunities to promote growth, being flexible,” Hayward told the House of Lord’s financial services regulation committee.
The new remit alone won’t boost inward investment and growth, and a new promotional body is needed for the UK to compete with Ireland and elsewhere, Hayward said.
“There seems to be some reticence about having a public private partnership,” Hayward said.
Parliament should also back regulators to accept more risk, given it implies “retribution” when things go wrong, as is inevitable at times, he added.
“It’s not fair to make regulators entirely the whipping boy,” Hayward said.
The FCA, which had no immediate comment, has faced a fierce backlash against its ‘naming and shaming’ plans to name companies it investigates early on, rather than after a probe has been concluded.
Britain’s finance minister Jeremy Hunt has said the plans appear to contradict the growth objective, and should be rethought.
Committee member Jonathan Hill suggested regulators need clarity between their statutory duties, and the “blue sky” and “social mission” discretion behind ‘naming and shaming‘ and other proposals that “reduce” growth and competitiveness.
The committee is scrutinising the new competitiveness objective ahead of the first annual report on it from regulators in coming weeks.

Emerging market credit ratings are finally looking up again

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 From Brazil, Nigeria and Turkey to even some of the riskiest emerging markets such as Egypt and Zambia, evidence is growing that a decade-long deterioration in sovereign credit ratings has finally started to reverse.
Economists watch ratings because they influence a country’s borrowing costs and many are now highlighting a turnaround that seems incongruous with the usual warnings about rising debt pressures.
According to Bank of America, almost three-quarters of all sovereign rating moves by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch this year have been in a positive direction, compared with the almost 100% that went the other way in the first year of the COVID pandemic.
With that and the spike in global interest rates now in the rear view mirror, more good news should be coming too.
Moody’s now has 15 developing economies on a positive outlook – rating firm parlance for an upgrade watch – one of its highest numbers ever. S&P has 17, while Fitch has its best ratio of positive versus negative outlooks since a post-global financial crisis rebound in ratings in 2011.
Fitch’s global head of sovereign research Ed Parker said the turnaround has been down to a combination of factors.
For some countries it has been a general recovery from COVID and/or the energy price spikes caused by the Ukraine war. Others are seeing country-specific improvements in policymaking, while a core group of junk-rated “frontier” nations are now benefiting from suddenly being able to access debt markets again, he said.
Aviva Investors’ head of EM hard currency debt, Aaron Grehan, describes the current upgrade wave as a “definitive shift” that has also coincided with a sharp drop in the premiums that emerging markets almost everywhere have had to pay to borrow.
“Since 2020, well over 60% of all rating actions have been negative. In 2024, 70% have been positive,” Grehan said, adding that Aviva’s internal scoring models were similar.
Reuters Graphics

DECADE OF DOWNGRADES

The awkward reality though is that the current run of upgrades will not make up for the last 10-15 years.
Turkey, South Africa, Brazil and Russia all lost coveted investment grade scores during that time, while a deluge of debt almost everywhere apart from the Gulf has left the average EM credit rating more than a notch lower than it used to be.
And though some countries argue that developed economies where debt is still surging are being treated more leniently by the rating firms, EM finances are hardly sparkling now.
Eldar Vakhitov, a sovereign analyst and “bond vigilante” at M&G Investments points to the International Monetary Fund’s recent forecast that the average EM fiscal deficit will edge up to 5.5% of GDP this year.
Just a year ago, the assumption was that the 2023 EM fiscal expansion was a one-off that would be fully reversed this year. Now the EM fiscal deficit is expected to remain above 5% of GDP until the end of the Fund’s forecast horizon in 2029.
So why all the rating upgrades?
“For some countries it is all about the starting point,” Vakhitov said, explaining that even though government deficits were still wide, they had at least dropped down from peak COVID levels.
A few governments, such as Zambia, are getting a natural lift from coming out of debt restructurings while a number of places are making obvious policy improvements.
Turkey, which has already had a couple of upgrades for attacking its inflation problem head on, and Egypt which seems to have shaken off default worries, are both expected to see multi-notch upgrades now, according to market pricing.
“Rating agencies tend to be slow though,” Vakhitov said, “so it often takes them a lot of time to give upgrades.”
Reuters Graphics

COUPON PAYMENTS

The downgrades have not stopped completely. Moody’s and Fitch have both put China on a warning over the last six months, Israel’s war has led to its first ever downgrades and Panama has been stripped of one of its investment grades.
Three years on from COVID spending splurges and the bills are having to be paid too. EM hard currency debt amortisations and coupon payments are expected to reach an all-time high of $134 billion this year, JP Morgan estimates.
That is up by $32 billion from last year, so it is not surprising then that emerging market policymakers are eager to do all they can to get their ratings up and keep borrowing costs down.
Indonesia’s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati explained in London this month how the agencies had doubted her when she told them during COVID that Indonesia would get its deficit back below 3% of GDP within 3 years.
“It ended up that we were able to consolidate the fiscal (position) in only two years,” she said. “So I always like to say to my rating agency staff, I won the bet, so you have to upgrade my rating!”
Reuters Graphics

UN food agency looks for $400 mln to feed millions in southern Africa

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The U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) needs $400 million to feed millions of people in Southern Africa following a drought that plunged parts of the region into hunger, the programme said on Wednesday.
The WFP told Reuters it needed urgent funding for six months to support drought relief in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi, after harvests fell as a result of an El Niño-induced drought that has affected 4.8 million people.
El Niño, a weather phenomenon that disrupts wind patterns and warms the temperature in parts of the Pacific Ocean, can impact crop yields by reducing rain levels.
“It’s fair to say this will probably be the biggest El Niño response we have ever done in Southern Africa,” WFP spokesperson Tomson Phiri told Reuters.
About 70% of the Southern African population that relies on rain-fed agriculture had their harvests “wiped out” by lack of rains, Phiri added.
Phiri said the WFP, which also provides cash payouts for hungry communities, is looking to buy grain from outside markets.
In August last year WFP spent $14 million to support communities in Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, Phiri said.
Successive droughts in the region have caused dwindling grain stocks, forcing affected countries like Zimbabwe to obtain grain abroad.
A group of private millers in Zimbabwe are planning to import 1.4 million metric tonnes of maize from Brazil, Argentina and other countries to help address hunger.
In Zimbabwe Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said the government will receive a $32 million insurance payout for drought relief from the African Union Climate Agency.
Ncube said part of the funding will be used as cash transfers for vulnerable communities with some going to humanitarian agencies to provide support for procuring food.

Eleven US House of Representatives races to watch in 2024

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Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives will defend a narrow majority in the Nov. 5 elections. Below are some of the races to watch as Republicans and Democrats battle through 2024 for control of the chamber.

REPLACING KEVIN MCCARTHY

California Assembly member Vince Fong, a Republican, won a special election runoff against Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux to fill Republican former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat. McCarthy resigned from Congress late last year after a small group of hardliners in his own party engineered his ouster, a historic first.
Fong will represent the state’s 20th Congressional District and add to Republicans’ narrow 217-213 majority. No Democrat advanced to the runoff in the nonpartisan contest.

TEXAS REPUBLICAN RUNOFF

Republican incumbent Tony Gonzales, who represents a district in south Texas, faces a May 28 nominating contest runoff challenge from fellow Republican Brandon Herrera, a gun rights social media personality.
The contest is closely watched because it is seen as a bellwether for the direction of the party, with some of Gonzales’ fellow House Republicans targeting him for his more moderate positions, including for supporting bipartisan gun safety legislation after 19 young students and two teachers were killed in a shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, part of his district.

INDICTMENT OF CUELLAR

Republicans Lazaro Garza, a rancher, and Jay Furman, a military veteran, are competing in a May 28 primary runoff to take on Democratic congressman Henry Cuellar in Texas.
Cuellar and his wife were indicted on federal charges accusing them of accepting bribes meant to benefit an Azerbaijani state-owned energy company and a bank based in Mexico. They have denied wrongdoing.
Cuellar ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, and the district had not been considered a top target for Republicans. But the court case could play a role in the November election.

OHIO REPUBLICAN FACEOFF

Michael Rulli, a Republican state senator, will face off against Michael Kripchak, a Democrat who worked in the entertainment industry before co-founding an electronic signal location tracking company, in a June 11 special election and November’s general election to replace Representative Bill Johnson of Ohio.
Johnson had stepped down to head Youngstown State University, leaving voters in his district to choose candidates to hold the seat through the rest of the term and also in the general election.
The district is heavily Republican.

NEW YORK SUBURBS

Republican Representative Nick LaLota’s district, made up of a number of suburbs of New York City, is one of several seats Democrats are aiming for in their quest to recapture the House majority.
Though a half dozen Democrats had filed to take him on, the field has winnowed to a race between former CNN journalist John Avlon and the former chair of a university’s chemistry department, Nancy Goroff.
Republican George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December after being indicted over corruption charges, ended his long-shot independent bid to unseat LaLota in April.
New York’s congressional primaries are on June 25.

JAMAAL BOWMAN’S CHALLENGER

Pro-Israel groups have sought primary challengers to left-wing lawmakers, but the incumbents have mostly been able to far outraise opponents, who have failed to gain much traction.
One exception is Democratic congressman Jamaal Bowman, a former school principal in his second two-year term representing a district covering part of New York City and some of its suburbs.
His challenger, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, has attacked Bowman for the congressman’s outspoken criticism of Israel’s handling of the conflict in Gaza, a vote against Democratic President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill and for not producing enough results. Bowman has pointed to the resources he has steered toward the district.
Latimer has raised more campaign funds than Bowman, and polling suggests the primary will be competitive. The seat is considered a safe seat for Democrats, meaning that whoever wins their primary is favored to win the general election.

LAUREN BOEBERT’S SWAP

Colorado will hold a special election on June 25, opens new tab to replace Republican Ken Buck, who left Congress before his two-year term was up.
Firebrand conservative Lauren Boebert, who won an unexpectedly narrow reelection bid in 2022 and who was facing a tough primary opponent in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, has said she would run in Buck’s old district instead.
But Boebert, who would have needed to resign her seat to run for the special election, has said she would only run in the general election.
The special election will include candidates such as Greg Lopez, a Republican former mayor who has pledged to serve as a placeholder through the end of Buck’s term, and Trisha Calvarese, a Democrat who worked as a speechwriter in Washington before returning home to Colorado to care for her parents after they became ill.
The crowded Republican general primary also includes a former Marine, a radio host and a former Republican leader in the state’s general assembly.
The seat is not considered competitive for the Democrats in the general election.

DEMOCRATS AIM AT SCHWEIKERT

In Arizona’s 1st District, Republican David Schweikert, who was first elected in 2010, is considered one of Democrats’ top targets as they seek to gain control of the House. Schweikert narrowly won his reelection bid in 2022.
Among the half-dozen Democrats in the race to take him on are a first-time candidate who works in finance, a former White House speechwriter and former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, and a doctor and state lawmaker.
Arizona’s primary elections are on July 30.

REPUBLICAN BID TO UNSEAT PEREZ

First-term Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state is seeking reelection, after initially edging out her opponent by 1 percentage point.
Hoping to face off against Perez is Joe Kent, who was the lawmaker’s opponent in 2022 and who was endorsed by the state Republican Party in August. Kent has challenged the results of the 2020 election and raised conspiracy theories about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Also seeking the Republican nomination is Leslie Lewallen, a former prosecutor and member of a local city council.
Washington’s primaries will be held on Aug. 6.

FILLING GALLAGHER’S SEAT

Republican lawmaker Mike Gallagher, who had been considered a rising star in his party, retired from Congress on April 25.
Wisconsin scheduled a special election to fill Gallagher’s seat through the end of his term for Nov. 5, the same day as the general election. A primary for the seat is scheduled for Aug. 13.
So far, four people have filed to replace Gallagher in the general election: three Republicans and one Democrat. They include a state lawmaker and a former state Senate president.
It is considered a safe seat for Republicans.

DEMOCRATS TARGET PERRY

Republican Scott Perry, one of the key lawmakers involved in Donald Trump’s bid to overturn his 2020 presidential election defeat, has been a key target for Democrats, who say he is far too conservative for his Pennsylvania district.
Janelle Stelson, a television journalist, won a crowded Democratic primary on April 23 to challenge him. Democrats are expected to make what they characterize as a threat to democracy a central part of their pitch to voters in November.

Citigroup urges dismissal of ex-managing director’s whistleblower lawsuit

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Citigroup (C.N), opens new tab urged a judge to dismiss a lawsuit by a former managing director who accused the bank of firing her in retaliation for her refusal to lie to regulators about its risk management practices.
The third-largest U.S. bank said it terminated Kathleen Martin in November because she lacked leadership and engagement skills for her job as interim data transformation chair, according to a Thursday night filing in Manhattan federal court.
Citigroup also said Martin’s allegations were not true, and that even if they were her whistleblowing was not protected activity under the federal Sarbanes-Oxley governance law.
Martin’s lawyer Valdi Licul, from the Wigdor law firm, rejected Citigroup’s defense.
“It is astounding that Citi can take the position that they are legally permitted to fire an employee who has made complaints about false statements to regulators,” Licul said.
Chief Executive Jane Fraser told investors on June 18 that the bank was stepping up efforts to “modernize” its automation and data reporting to address regulatory concerns, and acknowledged that “progress has been too slow” in some areas.
Martin said Citigroup hired her to “clean up its unlawful data maintenance practices and avoid further legal liability” in 2021, a year after the bank agreed to pay $400 million to federal regulators because of risk management shortfalls.
But she said Chief Operating Officer Anand Selva wanted her to falsify and hide key information about the bank’s metrics from one of its regulators, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), because it would “make us look bad.”
In seeking a dismissal, Citigroup said Martin did not explain which Sarbanes-Oxley provision she believed it violated, and the law does not protect employees who simply “push back” against supervisors.
Citigroup also said Martin made no allegations that it committed fraud or intended to deceive shareholders.
The New York-based bank declined additional comment on Friday. Selva is also a defendant, while Fraser is not.
Martin is seeking reinstatement, back pay and benefits, and damages for reputational and emotional harm.
The case is Martin v Citibank NA et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 24-03949.

UK inflation pressure stays hot, dashing hopes for June rate cut

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 Inflation in Britain eased less than expected and a key core measure of prices barely dropped, prompting investors to pull bets on a Bank of England rate cut next month which could have boosted embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before an election.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to April, down sharply from March’s 3.2% increase and its lowest since July 2021, the Office for National Statistics said.
But the BoE and economists polled by Reuters had forecast a bigger drop to 2.1%, just above the central bank’s 2% target, after a big cut to household energy tariffs in April.
Services inflation – a gauge of domestic price pressure for the BoE and which is also a problem in other European countries – was much higher than expected, and petrol prices rose.
Sterling jumped and investors slashed the chance of a BoE rate cut in June to just 18%, down sharply from 50% on Tuesday.
“This is only one month’s data, but it is enough of a surprise to suggest that the inflation process is not tracking as the BoE had expected,” Allan Monks, chief UK economist at JP Morgan, said.
“There is still another labour market and CPI report to come before the June meeting, but it is difficult for us to see what that could realistically do to leave most members feeling confident about cutting in June specifically.”
Services inflation inched down to 5.9% from 6.0% in March. The BoE’s forecasts and the Reuters poll had pointed to a reading of 5.5%.
Analysts at RBC Capital said the overshoot in services inflation did not appear to be driven by one-off factors, suggesting further stickiness in prices ahead.
“Certainly this morning takes June off the table,” Cathal Kennedy, senior UK economist at RBC Capital Markets, said.
“We’ve been saying for some time that we thought services inflation would be a lot harder to get down than perhaps some other people out there thought, particularly with the backdrop of the UK labour market which has loosened but is still very, very tight.”
Core inflation, which includes goods but not energy, food and tobacco, also reflected persistent price pressures, with the annual rate falling only to 3.9% from 4.2% in March. The Reuters poll had forecast a reading of 3.6%.
Item 1 of 6 Prices of food are displayed at the Borough Market as the UK inflation rates fall by less than expected in London, Britain May 22, 2024. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
Reuters Graphics
Reuters Graphics

PRICE PRESSURES

Sunak, who is struggling to woo voters back to his Conservative Party ahead of national elections expected later this year, focused on the fall in headline inflation.
“Today marks a major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal,” he said in a statement.
But the opposition Labour Party – far ahead of Sunak’s Conservatives in the opinion polls – said voters were still under pressure from their finances.
“Prices in the shops have soared, mortgage bills have risen and taxes are at a 70-year high,” Labour’s finance spokeswoman Rachel Reeves said.
Wednesday’s data means Britain has a lower rate of inflation than the United States, Canada, France and Germany. Japan is yet to report April inflation data. Italy’s inflation rate is 0.9%.
Still, Britain ranks poorly among Western European countries for its inflation record since 2020, with consumer prices up by more than 22% over that time frame – with only the Netherlands, Austria and Germany faring as badly.
Headline inflation’s swift fall from a high of 11.1% in October 2022 now appears to have run its course.
The BoE has forecast the CPI to rise again later this year to end 2024 at around 2.6%.
Recent labour market data has shown private sector regular wage growth eased only marginally in the three months to March, keeping the BoE on alert about inflationary heat in the economy.
Separate ONS data on Wednesday dealt a further setback to Sunak and finance minister Jeremy Hunt, showing public borrowing in April was higher than expected, which raising questions about their ability to deliver tax cuts to voters before the election.

Citigroup urges dismissal of ex-managing director’s whistleblower lawsuit

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Citigroup (C.N), opens new tab urged a judge to dismiss a lawsuit by a former managing director who accused the bank of firing her in retaliation for her refusal to lie to regulators about its risk management practices.
The third-largest U.S. bank said it terminated Kathleen Martin in November because she lacked leadership and engagement skills for her job as interim data transformation chair, according to a Thursday night filing in Manhattan federal court.
Citigroup also said Martin’s allegations were not true, and that even if they were her whistleblowing was not protected activity under the federal Sarbanes-Oxley governance law.
Martin’s lawyer Valdi Licul, from the Wigdor law firm, rejected Citigroup’s defense.
“It is astounding that Citi can take the position that they are legally permitted to fire an employee who has made complaints about false statements to regulators,” Licul said.
Chief Executive Jane Fraser told investors on June 18 that the bank was stepping up efforts to “modernize” its automation and data reporting to address regulatory concerns, and acknowledged that “progress has been too slow” in some areas.
Martin said Citigroup hired her to “clean up its unlawful data maintenance practices and avoid further legal liability” in 2021, a year after the bank agreed to pay $400 million to federal regulators because of risk management shortfalls.
But she said Chief Operating Officer Anand Selva wanted her to falsify and hide key information about the bank’s metrics from one of its regulators, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), because it would “make us look bad.”
In seeking a dismissal, Citigroup said Martin did not explain which Sarbanes-Oxley provision she believed it violated, and the law does not protect employees who simply “push back” against supervisors.
Citigroup also said Martin made no allegations that it committed fraud or intended to deceive shareholders.
The New York-based bank declined additional comment on Friday. Selva is also a defendant, while Fraser is not.
Martin is seeking reinstatement, back pay and benefits, and damages for reputational and emotional harm.

More finance, policy ambition demanded at London climate week

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 The world’s climate goal is hanging by a thread and countries need to dig deeper to provide the finance and set the policies needed to shift to a low-carbon economy, delegates to climate events in London heard this week.
As the first weeks of the Northern Hemisphere summer bring deadly heatwaves, the 45,000-plus attendees at London Climate Action Week events were warned that concrete commitments were needed at climate talks in Azerbaijan in November.
In the capital Baku, countries will seek agreement on a new annual target for the amount of investment needed in developing countries to replace the yearly $100 billion that rich countries had pledged in climate finance from 2020 and met in 2022.
Countries also need to make more ambitious plans to cut emissions to 2035, as average global temperatures hit fresh monthly records, some of which breached the world’s target temperature increase limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
“We need finance at scale,” Selwin Hart, Special Adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General on Climate Action said at an event this week.
“Despite the very clear economic case for urgency and ambition, we’re simply not moving fast enough. And in my view, the climate crisis is a crisis of political will,” he said.
A 2023 study estimated that by 2030 developing countries would need to invest around $2.4 trillion a year to decarbonise their economies, of which $1 trillion will come from external sources.
Preliminary talks earlier this month in Bonn, Germany, exposed continuing rifts among the world’s biggest economies over who should contribute – and by how much.
“It’s too early to talk about the quantum,” Canada’s Ambassador for Climate Change Catherine Stewart said in an interview, with more discussion needed on where the money will come from and “the fact we need everybody coming to the table”.
Mahmoud Mohieldin, U.N. Climate Change High-Level Champion for Egypt, told Reuters the discussions were “still very far from reaching an agreement about almost everything from a developing economy or emerging markets perspective.”
While the target finance amount was important, Mohieldin said any deal needed more clarity over the types of financing to be offered, such as loans, equity or guarantees, and how it would be counted to ensure governments deliver what they pledge.
“Unfortunately, some of the major advanced economies are not really doing their fair share… there are many pledges that are not honoured,” he said.
Brian O’Callaghan, an adviser to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, said he was concerned that the dynamic nature of climate impacts were not being accurately reflected in the discussions around the finance target.
“The number to me should be higher than a trillion per year,” he said. “And then there’s a question of how that number changes over time and honestly that level of sophistication has been completely lacking in these technical expert dialogues.”
Stronger policies were needed to encourage cleaner technologies and to cut emissions in developed countries, delegates heard, echoing a new initiative launched at the start of the week.
Mission 2025, backed by leading companies, investors and cities, aims to encourage governments to set ambitious policies when submitting their next round of climate goals to the United Nations early next year.
“The main barriers to achieving the climate action we need is not economics, it’s not technology, it’s politics and institutional change,” said Nick Mabey, founder of the annual event and co-Chief Executive of independent research firm E3G.